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First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2016-17





Press Note : First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2016-17


The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation have released the First Advance estimates of national income at constant (2011-12) and current prices, for the financial year 2016-17. These are presented in Statements 1-4.




2.         The First Advance Estimates of GDP have been released in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts@. The approach for compiling the advance estimates is based on benchmark-indicator method. The Sector-wise estimates are obtained by extrapolation of  indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production of first 7 months of the financial year, (ii) financial performance of listed companies in the private corporate sector available upto quarter ending September, 2016 (ii) 1st advance estimates of crop production, (iii) accounts of  Central & State Governments, information on indicators like sales tax, deposits & credits, passenger and freight earnings of railways, passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, cargo handled at major sea ports, sales of commercial vehicles etc. available for first 7/8 months of the financial year. The salient features of the estimates are detailed below:



A.                ESTIMATES AT CONSTANT (2011-12) PRICES



Gross Domestic Product



3.        Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year   2016-17 is likely to attain a level of  `121.55 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2015-16 of `113.50 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2016. The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2015-16.



Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices



4.         Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from `104.27 lakh crore in 2015-16 to `111.53 lakh crore in 2016-17. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2016-17 is 7.0 percent against 7.2 percent in 2015-16.



5.         The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0 percent are, 'public administration, defence and other services’, 'financial, real estate and professional services' and ‘manufacturing’.





@http://mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/press_releases_statements/Modification_Rev%20Policy_16.11.2016.pdf



The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’, ‘construction’ and ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’ is estimated to be 4.1 per cent, (-)1.8 per cent, 6.5 percent, 2.9 per cent and 6.0 percent respectively.



Agriculture



6.         The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth of  4.1 per cent in its GVA during 2016-17, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 1.2 per cent. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the First Advance Estimates of production of major Kharif crops for 2016-17 and targets based on rabi sowings. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), the production growth of  food grains  during  the  Kharif  season of agriculture year 2016-17 was 8.9 percent as compared to decline of 3.2 percent during the same period in 2015-16.  In  case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of targets are available for milk, egg, and wool, from the Department of Animal Husbandry, Ministry of Agriculture. Around 39.0 percent of GVA of this sector is based on  livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of above 3.7 percent in 2016-17.



Mining and quarrying



7.         GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector is estimated to decline by 1.8 percent as compared to growth of 7.4 percent in 2015-16. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil  and natural gas registered growth rates of 1.6 per cent, (-)3.5 percent and (-)3.7 percent respectively during April-November 2016-17 as compared to 4.3 percent, (-)0.4 percent and (-)2.3 percent respectively during April-November, 2015-16.  The growth rates observed in these items have been used to extrapolate the Provisional  Estimates of value of output of coal, crude petroleum, and other major and minor minerals, respectively. IIP of mining registered growth rate of (-)0.2 percent during April-October, 2016-17 as compared to 2.2 percent during April-October, 2015-16. Advance Estimate of IIP for 2016-17 of this sector,  compiled  by dividing the cumulative index for the first 7 months of the current financial year, by the average of ratio of 7 months index to the annual index of past years has been used. The private corporate sector growth in the mining sector was estimated using latest available information on major listed companies during first half  of 2016-17.



Manufacturing

8.         GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘manufacturing’ sector is estimated to grow by 7.4

percent as compared to growth of 9.3 percent in 2015-16. The private corporate sector has a share of around 72 percent in the manufacturing sector. The private corporate sector growth in the manufacturing sector was estimated using latest available information on major listed companies during first half of 2016-17. The quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which include individual proprietorship and partnerships and khadi & village Industries has a share of around 23 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. The Advance Estimates of IIP at 2-digit industry groups for the current year are initially compiled by dividing the cumulative index for the 7 months of the current year, by the average of ratio of 7 months index to the annual index of past years. The estimated IIP so derived for the current year at 2-digit level is used to extrapolate the previous year’s value added estimates at 2-digit level, separately for the quasi corporate and household sectors. IIP manufacturing registered growth rates of (-) 1.0 during April-October, 2016-17 as compared to 5.1 percent during April-October, 2015-16. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the manufactured products  registered a growth of  2.0 per cent during April-November, 2016-17 as compared to (-)1.3 percent during April-November, 2015-16.



Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services



9.         GVA at basic prices for  2016-17 from  ‘Electricity ,Gas, water supply and other utility services’  sector  is expected to grow by 6.5 percent as compared to growth of 6.6 percent in 2015-16. The Advance Estimates of key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity compiled by dividing the cumulative index for the 7 months of the current year, by the average of ratio of 7 months index to the annual index of past years has been used. IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 4.6 percent during April-October, 2016-17 as against 5.2 percent growth during April-October, 2015-16.



Construction

10.       GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘Construction’ sector is expected to grow  by 2.9 percent as compared to growth of 3.9 percent in 2015-16. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 4.3 percent and 3.0 percent respectively during April-November, 2016-17.





Trade, hotels and Transport & communication and services related to broadcasting

11.                            The estimated growth in GVA for the trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting services during 2016-17 is placed at 6.0 per cent as against growth of 9.0 percent in the previous year. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth. As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection is expected to grow by 8.6 percent during  2016-17. WPI of all commodities registered 2.8 percent growth during April-November 2016-17 as against (-)3.3 percent during April-November, 2015-16. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of (-) 7.4 per cent and (-) 0.4 percent respectively during April-November 2016-17. Cargo handled at major sea ports increased by 6.8 per cent during April-November, 2016-17 as compared to 3.4 percent during April-November, 2015-16. Passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation increased by 19.6 per cent and 9.9 per cent respectively during April-November, 2016-17 as compared to 16.5 percent and 5.9 percent respectively during April-November, 2015-16. Sales of commercial vehicles registered growth of 4.7 percent during April-November, 2016-17 as compared to 8.1 percent during April-November, 2015-16.



Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services

12.       The estimated growth in GVA for this sector during 2016-17 is placed at 9.0 percent as compared to growth of 10.3 percent in  2015-16.  Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 71.0 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which was estimated using latest available information on listed companies for the  first half of 2016-17.  The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 9.8 per cent, and 9.1 per cent, respectively as on October 2016 as against growth of  10.5 percent and 8.8 percent respectively  as on October 2015.





Public administration and defence and other services



13.       GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from this sector is expected to grow  by 12.8 percent as compared to growth of 6.6 percent in  2015-16. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government expenditure net of interest payments and subsidies grew by 25.3 percent during April-November 2016-17.



Per Capita Income



14.       The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of `81805 as compared to `77,435 for the year 2015-16. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.6 per cent during 2016-17, as against 6.2 per cent in the previous year.



B.      ESTIMATES AT CURRENT PRICES



15.     Price indices used as deflators



             The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 6.9 per cent, 2.0 per cent, (-)1.4 per cent and 2.8 percent, respectively during April-November 2016-17. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 5.0 per cent during April-November, 2016-17.



Gross Domestic Product



16.       GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of `151.93 lakh crore, as against `135.76 lakh crore in 2015-16 showing a growth rate of 11.9 per cent.



National Income



17.       The nominal Net National Income (NNI), also known as national income (at current prices) is likely to be `133.81 lakh crore during 2016-17, as against `119.69 lakh crore for the year 2015-16. In terms of growth rates, the national income registered a growth rate of 11.8 per cent in 2016-17 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 8.7 per cent.



Per Capita Income



18.       The per capita net national income during 2016-17 is estimated to be `103,007 showing a rise of 10.4 per cent as compared to `93,293 during 2015-16 with the growth rate of 7.4 percent.



C.   ANNUAL ESTIMATES  OF  FINAL EXPENDITURES OF GDP, 2016-17



19.       Along with the First Advance Estimates of GVA at basic prices by economic activity, the First Advance Estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2011-12) prices are also released. These estimates have been compiled using the data from the same sources as those used for compiling GVA estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and expenditure of Central Government.  As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.



Private Final Consumption Expenditure



20.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `89.72 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `80.78 lakh crore in 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `67.13 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `63.01 lakh crore in 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2016-17 are estimated at 59.1 per cent and 55.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.5 per cent and 55.5 per cent, respectively in 2015-16.



Government Final Consumption Expenditure



21.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `18.61 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `14.39 lakh crore in 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `13.95 lakh crore in 2016-17as against `11.27 lakh crore in 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2016-17  are estimated at 12.3 per cent and 11.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 10.6 per cent and 9.9 per cent, respectively in 2015-16.



Gross Fixed Capital Formation

22.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `40.39 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `39.72 lakh crore in 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `35.35 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `35.41 lakh crore in 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2016-17 are estimated at 26.6 per cent and 29.1 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.3 per cent and 31.2 per cent, respectively in 2015-16. The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 1.7 percent at current prices and (-)0.2 percent at constant prices.



23.       Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures of GDP for the years 2014-15 and 2015-16 and 2016-17, at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.



24.       The next release of second advance estimates of national income for the year 2016-17 and quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter Ocotber-December, 2016 (Q3 of 2016-17) will be on 28.02.2017.


STATEMENT 1: First Advance Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2016-17
 ( At 2011- 12 Prices) (` crore)





( At 2011- 12 Prices)

(` crore)



Item
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17


( 1st RE )
(PE)
(Ist AE)
2015-16
2016-17
Domestic Product




GVA at basic prices
9727490
10427191
11153038
7.2
7.0
Net taxes on products
824660
923058
1001760
11.9
8.5
GDP (1+2)
10552151
11350249
12154797
7.6
7.1
NDP
9359476
10071784
10787338
7.6
7.1
Final Expenditures





PFCE
5864283
6301128
6713186
7.4
6.5
GFCE
1102607
1126952
1394898
2.2
23.8
GFCF
3408251
3540750
3535003
3.9
-0.2
CIS
195007
205816
216545
5.5
5.2
VALUABLES
173275
173811
115665
0.3
-33.5
Exports of goods and services
2508402
2377742
2429080
-5.2
2.2
Less Imports of goods and services
2664390
2590793
2491499
-2.8
-3.8
Discrepancies
-35284
214843
241919


GDP
10552151
11350249
12154797
7.6
7.1
RATES TO GDP





PFCE
55.6
55.5
55.2


GFCE
10.4
9.9
11.5


GFCF
32.3
31.2
29.1


CIS
1.8
1.8
1.8


VALUABLES
1.6
1.5
1.0


Exports of goods and services
23.8
20.9
20.0


Less Imports of goods and services
25.2
22.8
20.5


Discrepancies
-0.3
1.9
2.0


GDP
100.0
100.0
100.0


GNI
10427701
11213328
11993865
7.5
7.0
NNI
9235026
9934863
10626406
7.6
7.0



Population* (in million)
1267
1283
1299
1.3
1.2
Per Capita GDP
83285
88466
93570
6.2
5.8
Per Capita GNI
82302
87399
92332
6.2
5.6
Per Capita NNI
72889
77435
81805
6.2
5.6
Per Capita PFCE
46285
49112
51680
6.1
5.2
 







































RE: Revised estimates PE: Provisional Estimates; AE: Advance Estimates

STATEMENT 2: First Advance Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2016-17
( At Current Prices)



STATEMENT 2: First Advance Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2016-17


( At Current Prices)

(` crore)




S.No
Item
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17




( 1st RE )
(PE)
(Ist AE)
2015-16


Domestic Product





1
GVA at basic prices
11472409
12279410
13602175
7.0
10.8

2
Net taxes on products
1015796
1296676
1590413
27.7
22.7

3
GDP (1+2)
12488205
13576086
15192588
8.7
11.9

4
NDP
11155025
12126769
13570701
8.7
11.9


Final Expenditures






5
PFCE
7193046
8077560
8972423
12.3
11.1

6
GFCE
1365463
1439198
1861284
5.4
29.3

7
GFCF
3844366
3972401
4039237
3.3
1.7

8
CIS
220557
234444
256815
6.3
9.5

9
VALUABLES
192663
187461
138721
-2.7
-26.0

10
Exports of goods and services
2861066
2706892
2861096
-5.4
5.7

11
Less Imports of goods and services
3233123
3051005
3034410
-5.6
-0.5

12
Discrepancies
44168
9135
97422



13
GDP
12488205
13576086
15192588
8.7
11.9


RATES TO GDP






14
PFCE
57.6
59.5
59.1



15
GFCE
10.9
10.6
12.3



16
GFCF
30.8
29.3
26.6



17
CIS
1.8
1.7
1.7



18
VALUABLES
1.5
1.4
0.9



19
Exports of goods and services
22.9
19.9
18.8



20
Less Imports of goods and services
25.9
22.5
20.0



21
Discrepancies
0.4
0.1
0.6



22
GDP
100.0
100.0
100.0



23
GNI
12340772
13418745
15002477
8.7
11.8

24
NNI
11007592
11969428
13380590
8.7
11.8

25
GNDI
12745926
13832957
15394372
8.5
11.3

26
NNDI
11412746
12383640
13772485
8.5
11.2

  Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption  




27
Per Capita GDP
98565
105815
116956
7.4
10.5

28
Per Capita GNI
97402
104589
115493
7.4
10.4

29
Per Capita NNI
86879
93293
103007
7.4
10.4

30
Per Capita GNDI
100599
107817
118509
7.2
9.9

31
Per Capita PFCE
56772
62958
69072
10.9
9.7


















 * Relates to mid-financial year
RE: Revised estimates PE: Provisional Estimates; AE: Advance Estimates

STATEMENT 3:  First Advance Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity
(At 2011-12 prices)
(` crore)



Industry
2014-15
( 1st RE )
2015-16
(PE)
2016-17
( IstAE)
Per centage change over previous year



2015-16
2016-17
1. Agriculture, forestry & fishing
1,584,293
1,604,044
1,669,833
1.2
4.1
2. Mining & quarrying
296,328
318,377
312,663
7.4
-1.8
3. Manufacturing
1,667,069
1,821,926
1,957,026
9.3
7.4
4. Electricity, gas,water supply& other utility services
216,970
231,228
246,188
6.6
6.5
5. Construction
854,636
887,957
913,918
3.9
2.9
6. Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting
1,833,997
1,998,292
2,117,867
9.0
6.0
7.  Financial,  real estate  &  professional  services
2,039,460
2,248,845
2,450,391
10.3
9.0
8.  Public administration, defence  and Other Services
1,234,737
1,316,522
1,485,151
6.6
12.8
 GVA  at  Basic Price
9,727,490
10,427,191
11,153,038
7.2
7.0
 

RE: Revised estimates PE: Provisional Estimates; AE: Advance Estimates

STATEMENT 4:  First Advance Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity
(At current prices)
(` crore)


Industry
2014-15
( 1st RE )
2015-16
(PE)
2016-17
( IstAE)
Per centage change over previous year



2015-16
2016-17
1. Agriculture, forestry & fishing
1,995,251
2,093,081
2,318,239
4.9
10.8
2. Mining & quarrying
304,300
318,672
321,701
4.7
1.0
3. Manufacturing
1,845,541
1,994,330
2,186,573
8.1
9.6
4. Electricity, gas,water supply& other utility services
288,935
320,186
335,457
10.8
4.8
5. Construction
1,003,903
1,016,659
1,075,632
1.3
5.8
6. Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting
2,140,370
2,281,533
2,482,019
6.6
8.8
7.  Financial,  real estate  &  professional  services
2,359,279
2,534,422
2,845,239
7.4
12.3
8.  Public administration, defence  and Other Services
1,534,831
1,720,527
2,037,315
12.1
18.4
9.  GVA at Basic Price
11,472,409
12,279,410
13,602,175
7.0
10.8


























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